Albert Einstein, in addition to being 'not bad' at physics, also left us with a wonderful legacy of quotes.  Let's start with one which is pretty easy to apply to Retail Supply Chain in today's new world:

"Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results."

Why is that apposite to the post-Covid market?  Put simply, the data upon which Retail has depended to create a view (albeit it a knowingly flawed one) of the future will no longer cut it.  Demand Planning to understand future sales volumes sliced by whatever metric makes most sense (SKU, location, category, geography, etc.) has, for decades, relied upon transactional sales figures from history.  The time-series statistical algorithms at the heart of Demand Management software and solutions use these historical patterns to project extrapolated forecasts which in turn, Retail then uses to create inventory replenishment plans, stock/safety stock predictions and allocation strategies aimed at meeting anticipated customer demand.  Over the years they have evolved in complexity but in essence they haven't changed their fundamental characteristics.  And that's where Problem Number 1 lies.

Post-pandemic, Retail's previously rich repository of customer trend based on sales data has been massively disrupted.  Covid-19 has forced rapid consumer changes, due to national lockdowns, and the accelerated use of digital channels.  Not only does this omnichannel conundrum inject issues of skewed visibility but the types of product and their means of purchase has also changed drastically.  As this BBC article reported on Friday 24 July, UK Retail sales appear to be rebounding handsomely with a month-on-month total sales increase of 13.9% in June but the means by which consumers are purchasing has changed: "Online sales continued to go "from strength to strength", the ONS added, accounting for £3 out of every £10 spent by consumers."  £3 out of every £10 spent equates to online now boasting a 30% share of transactional spend, whereas it was recorded by the Office Of National Statistics (ONS) as 19% in January, just prior to lockdown.

These changes mean that Retail data sets, all carefully collated and curated from years of operational sales, no longer reflect the new world reality.  There is now an emerging information and insights deficit due to 'holes' in the data.  How can such data possibly be used to forecast future behaviour?

Time for Albert's second words of wisdom quote:

"Life is like riding a bicycle. To keep your balance you must keep moving."

'Keep moving' in this context means adaptation and embracing new Digitally Transformed ways of working.  Retail must re-focus efforts at giving due credence to the importance of the Supply Chain, shifting from Demand Forecasting to proper Demand Management by instilling holistic Demand Sensing techniques and solutions.  I would argue that, as I have written about in past posts, this begins with enhanced listening to the voice of the customer.  Trend and behavioural changes are latent within consumer feedback and intercepting then divining the gold-dust such messages contain can only be attained by placing the customer at the heart of all Digital Transformation programmes.  This means focusing upon digital loyalty coupled with spending analysis, comparison of 'old' habits with new behaviours, exploiting Cloud-based analytics modelling to generate business insight and the agility to implement changes to serving the customer consistently regardless of channel which will ensure that they keep coming back.  This is why the Supply Chain practices of demand, supply, distribution, fulfillment, allocation and sourcing become even more critical: fail to focus on the operational engine room of Retail business and the front-end risks grinding to a halt when customers realise that you cannot supply their needs and wants in the post-Covid world.

The confusing contradictory paradoxes which exist between Einstein's increasingly empirically-acknowledged brilliance relating to how the Universe works on a cosmic level (E=MC²) and the still-enigmatic 'rules' of the quantum world we are still trying to understand can be illustrated in the simple perception of time.  Carlo Rovelli argues with unbelievable conviction that our current view of time is unrealistic and this bubbles over from science into philosophy.  It fascinates me personally but I have to confess it also leaves my soft brain spinning wildly. To help, Einstein also provided this third gem:

"If you can't explain it simply, you don't understand it well enough."

It's a prosaic enough stanza, one I've often mulled myself.  But neither Einstein nor Rovelli had/have to deal with something as complicated as post-pandemic Retail Supply Chain data deficit...

But let's end on a high.  One last quote from Albert:

"In the middle of difficulty lies opportunity."

I've said it before and it's worth saying again: it is those Retailers brave and far-sighted enough to realise that the old ways of working will not carry them through to future success that will survive.  Make certain that you're among those numbers.